North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 19 September 2002
Disease location(s): Salem County, NJ
Trajectory Start (shown by black star (*) on map): Carney's Point, NJ

Regional weather: Thursday, September 19 - Eastern U.S.: Soon-to-be-hurricane Isidore is expected to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. Future track is uncertain but the storm will likely move slowly in the southern Gulf for at least the next several days. Thursday and Friday.... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the FL / southern GA regions both days. High pressure in the Northeast will move off the coast. A cold front now in the Plains will move east. Scattered showers today from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast Thursday while most of the East remains dry. A band of showers and thunderstorms accompanies the front on Friday, affecting western sections of the OH and TN River valleys. East still dry. Highs in the 70's and 80's, lows in the 60's. Saturday and Sunday.... the cold front will continue slowly east. It will probably weaken with time. Scattered showers will approach the Appalachians on Saturday, progressing over the mountains in some areas on Sunday. Many areas along the east coast will be dry.

Trajectory weather: Mostly sunny through mid-afternoon, then partly sunny with a slight chance of a shower. High in the mid-80's. Partly cloudy tonight and Friday, slight chance of showers Friday. Low in the low 60's, high in the 70's on Friday.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** Unfavorable conditions are expected for Thursday's and Friday's transport events, with Low Risk to cucurbit crops. Saturday and Sunday..... situation is quite similar to that of the Painter, VA source... in that partly cloudy and dry conditions are expected near the source, but the chance of showers in parts of PA and NY gives rise to the possibility of live-spore deposition in those areas. Low to Weakly Moderate Risk for central and eastern sections of PA and NY over the weekend. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.