North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 19 September 2002
Disease location(s): Southwest Georgia (multiple counties) Trajectory Start (shown by black star (*) on map): Camilla, GA

Regional weather: Thursday, September 19 - Eastern U.S.: Soon-to-be-hurricane Isidore is expected to move into the southern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday. Future track is uncertain but the storm will likely move slowly in the southern Gulf for at least the next several days. Thursday and Friday.... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the FL / southern GA regions both days. High pressure in the Northeast will move off the coast. A cold front now in the Plains will move east. Scattered showers today from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast Thursday while most of the East remains dry. A band of showers and thunderstorms accompanies the front on Friday, affecting western sections of the OH and TN River valleys. East still dry. Highs in the 70's and 80's, lows in the 60's. Saturday and Sunday.... the cold front will continue slowly east. It will probably weaken with time. Scattered showers will approach the Appalachians on Saturday, progressing over the mountains in some areas on Sunday. Many areas along the east coast will be dry.

Trajectory weather: Mostly cloudy today and tonight, 30-40% chance of afternoon and evening showers or thunderstorms. High near 90, low in the upper 60's. Partly cloudy Friday with a chance of showers, high in the mid-80's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** Favorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition for the transport events Thursday and Friday. Friday's trajectory moves much like today's, but shifted a bit to the east. Affected areas are similar. Thursday and Friday..... Strongly Moderate Risk for southern GA. Moderate Risk for eastern AL, western GA, and southeast TN. Low Risk beyond. Favorable weather is expected in the southern GA region Saturday and Sunday. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.