North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 17 September 2002
Disease location(s): Southwest Indiana (Knox County)
Trajectory Start(s) (shown by black star (*) on map): Vincennes, IN

Regional weather: Tuesday, September 17 - Eastern U.S.: A stalled front over the Southeast will return north as a warm front today and Wednesday..... dissipating late Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along and south of the front. Best chance of rain is in the Southeast and TN and OH river valleys on Tuesday, in and near the southern Appalachian Mountains on Wednesday. High pressure to the north will keep the Northeast and much of the mid-Atlantic regions dry. Highs in the 70's and 80's. Lows mostly 60's.

Trajectory weather: Partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of showers today, high near 80. Showers and thunderstorms likely tonight, low in the low 60's. Mostly cloudy Wednesday with a 40-50% chance of rain, high in the mid-70's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** Some spore death will occur during transport this afternoon. Most airborne spores should be washed out by late tonight. Strongly Moderate Risk for western IN and IL (all but the far north and far south) today. Low Risk otherwise. On Wednesday.... the trajectory moves north and northeast, skirting the southeastern shore of Lake Michigan and cutting across to the northern half of Lake Huron. Conditions will be mixed to mostly favorable for disease development. Strongly Moderate Risk Wednesday for southeast IL, western and northern IN, and western and northern sections of Michigan's lower peninsula. Low Risk otherwise. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.