North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 17 September 2002
Disease location(s): Eastern North Carolina (Edgecombe and Wayne Counties)
Trajectory Starts (shown by black star (*) on map): Pinetops, NC and Goldsboro, NC

Regional weather: Tuesday, September 17 - Eastern U.S.: A stalled front over the Southeast will return north as a warm front today and Wednesday..... dissipating late Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along and south of the front. Best chance of rain is in the Southeast and TN and OH river valleys on Tuesday, in and near the southern Appalachian Mountains on Wednesday. High pressure to the north will keep the Northeast and much of the mid-Atlantic regions dry. Highs in the 70's and 80's. Lows mostly 60's.

Trajectory weather: Partly sunny today, high in the mid-80's. Becoming mostly cloudy tonight, low in the mid-60's. Partly to mostly cloudy on Wednesday, high near 80.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat Today, Moderate Wednesday *** Unfavorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition today. Low Risk along Tuesday's trajectory. On Wednesday.... trajectories move north, through north-central NC, south-central and northern VA, and central PA. Mixed conditions are expected. Moderate Risk Wednesday for eastern and north-central NC and central VA. Low Risk beyond. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.