North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 17 September 2002
Disease location(s): Far eastern VA (Accomack County)
Trajectory Start (shown by black star (*) on map): Painter, VA

Regional weather: Tuesday, September 17 - Eastern U.S.: A stalled front over the Southeast will return north as a warm front today and Wednesday..... dissipating late Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along and south of the front. Best chance of rain is in the Southeast and TN and OH river valleys on Tuesday, in and near the southern Appalachian Mountains on Wednesday. High pressure to the north will keep the Northeast and much of the mid-Atlantic regions dry. Highs in the 70's and 80's. Lows mostly 60's.

Trajectory weather: Mostly sunny going to partly cloudy later this afternoon, high in the low 80's. Partly cloudy tonight and Wednesday, low in the mid-60's, high near 80.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** Conditions are unfavorable for spore survival for Tuesday's and Wednesday's transport events. No rain expected along today's trajectory. Chance of showers very late in Wednesday's trajectory north of Lake Ontario, but any airborne spores should be dead by that time. Low Risk to cucurbit crops along Tuesday's and Wednesday's trajectories from this source. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.