North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 10 September 2002
Disease location(s): Eastern North Carolina (Edgecombe and Wayne Counties)
Trajectory Starts (shown by black star (*) on map): Pinetops, NC and Goldsboro, NC

Regional weather: Tuesday, September 10 - Eastern U.S.: Two main players in the weather for Tuesday and Wednesday. Tropical Storm Gustav.... now just off the NC coast.... will bring rain for the coastal sections of southeast VA southward through northeast SC. A few light showers may occur farther inland. Other than some showers for southern FL, all other areas will remain dry on Tuesday. Tuesday night and Wednesday, a cold front now in the Midwest will plow through the eastern United States. Rain will spread across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Only a few showers are expected elsewhere with the frontal passage, as there is little moisture to work with. Showers also for central and southern FL. Highs in the 80's and 90's ahead of the cold front, giving way to 70's and 80's behind.

Trajectory weather: Mostly cloudy with a 50-70% chance of showers and thunderstorms today, high in the low 80's. Chance of showers this evening, then showers likely again after midnight. Low near 70. Showers Wednesday, high in the low 80's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Serious Threat today, Low Threat Wednesday *** Highly favorable conditions for disease development today near the source and along the forecast trajectory. HIGH RISK for eastern NC, Moderate Risk for northeast SC. On Wednesday, trajectories move quickly to the east. Unfavorable conditions are expected, with sunny to partly cloudy skies. A slight chance of showers (at best) exists near the coast. Low Risk for this region on Wednesday. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.