North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 10 September 2002
Disease location(s): Far eastern VA (Accomack County)
Trajectory Start (shown by black star (*) on map): Painter, VA

Regional weather: Tuesday, September 10 - Eastern U.S.: Two main players in the weather for Tuesday and Wednesday. Tropical Storm Gustav.... now just off the NC coast.... will bring rain for the coastal sections of southeast VA southward through northeast SC. A few light showers may occur farther inland. Other than some showers for southern FL, all other areas will remain dry on Tuesday. Tuesday night and Wednesday, a cold front now in the Midwest will plow through the eastern United States. Rain will spread across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Only a few showers are expected elsewhere with the frontal passage, as there is little moisture to work with. Showers also for central and southern FL. Highs in the 80's and 90's ahead of the cold front, giving way to 70's and 80's behind.

Trajectory weather: Mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and thunderstorms today, high near 80. Showers likely tonight, low in the low 70's. Showers ending in early morning, becoming partly sunny by midday Wednesday. High in the mid-80's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Serious Threat today, Low Threat Wednesday *** Highly favorable conditions for Tuesday's transport event. HIGH RISK for southeast MD and southeast VA. Low Risk beyond. Unfavorable conditions are expected for Wednesday's transport event, with the trajetory going rapidly offshore. Low Risk on Wednesday. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.