North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 5 September 2002
Disease location(s): Central Florida
Trajectory Start (shown by black star (*) on map): Groveland, FL

Regional weather: Thursday, September 5 - Eastern U.S.: High pressure will dominate the weather across the northern 2/3 of the eastern U.S. through the weekend. Any potential rainfall will occur only over the far north or the far south. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in FL and the Gulf Coast region due to several factors, including.......1) a dying stationary front that moved into the Southeast earlier this week....2) Eduardo, which is now a tropical depression moving over north-central FL and into the Gulf. It is not expected to re-intensify but has the potential to bring some heavy rains to the central Gulf Coast area, and 3) an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico which will be affecting the TX / LA region and is not expected to move eastward. Highs will be in the 80's most areas with some 70's north and 90's south. Lows in the 50's and 60's north with some 70's south.

Trajectory weather: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely today, high in the upper 80's. Rain ending, becoming partly cloudy tonight, low in the low 70's. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers on Friday, high near 90.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Serious Threat Thursday and Friday, Moderate otherwise *** Conditions are quite favorable for survivable transport and deposition today and Friday. The bulk of spore washout will occur near the source, as numerous showers and thunderstorms have been occurring in the central FL area since late morning. Friday's trajectory moves due west. HIGH RISK for central FL today and Friday. Low Risk otherwise. Mixed conditions are expected during the weekend near the source, with trajectories likely moving west. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.