North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 3 September 2002
Disease location(s): Far eastern VA (Accomack County)
Trajectory Start (shown by black star (*) on map): Painter, VA

Regional weather: Tuesday, September 3 - Eastern U.S.: High pressure sits overhead today. A cold front will approach from the northwest later today, affecting northern areas beginning tonight and the mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday. only Mostly light amounts of rain are expected with the frontal passage. Tropical storm Edouard, now located off the northern FL coast, will affect the coasts of SC, GA, and parts of FL with some shower activity during the next two days. He is expected to drift largely in place for a day or so before moving to the southwest across northern FL. Highs ranging from the 80's north to lower 90's south. Lows mostly in the 60's and 70's. Cooler northern areas after the front moves through but not dramatically so.

Trajectory weather: Mostly sunny today, high in the mid-80's. Increasing clouds tonight with a chance of showers after midnight, low in the upper 60's. Variably cloudy Wednesday, chance of showers, high in the 70's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat *** Unfavorable conditions for survivable transport today. Chance of rain later tonight and tomorrow but the bulk of any airborne spores will be dead, decreasing the risk. Low Risk along Tuesday's trajectory. Wednesday..... the trajectory moves ENE almost directly offshore. Conditions will be mixed but any threat of disease development will be near the source. Moderate Risk for far eastern VA and southeast MD, Low Risk otherwise. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.