North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 3 September 2002
Disease location(s): Salem County, NJ
Trajectory Start (shown by black star (*) on map): Carney's Point, NJ

Regional weather: Tuesday, September 3 - Eastern U.S.: High pressure sits overhead today. A cold front will approach from the northwest later today, affecting northern areas beginning tonight and the mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday. only Mostly light amounts of rain are expected with the frontal passage. Tropical storm Edouard, now located off the northern FL coast, will affect the coasts of SC, GA, and parts of FL with some shower activity during the next two days. He is expected to drift largely in place for a day or so before moving to the southwest across northern FL. Highs ranging from the 80's north to lower 90's south. Lows mostly in the 60's and 70's. Cooler northern areas after the front moves through but not dramatically so.

Trajectory weather: Partly sunny today, high in the mid-80's. Increasing clouds tonight with a chance of showers late, low in the mid-60's. Chance of rain 40%. Morning showers on Wednesday, becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High in the mid-70's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** No rain expected near the source today, but transport conditions will be mixed. Surviving airborne spores may be rained out later tonight over southern New England. Low Risk near the source today. Moderate Risk for CT, RI, and eastern MA. Low Risk beyond. Wednesday.... the trajectory moves quickly due east. Mixed conditions are expected. Moderate Risk near the source and across southern NJ on Wednesday. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.