North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 3 September 2002
Disease location(s): Charleston, South Carolina
Trajectory Start (shown by black star (*) on map): Charleston, SC

Regional weather: Tuesday, September 3 - Eastern U.S.: High pressure sits overhead today. A cold front will approach from the northwest later today, affecting northern areas beginning tonight and the mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday. only Mostly light amounts of rain are expected with the frontal passage. Tropical storm Edouard, now located off the northern FL coast, will affect the coasts of SC, GA, and parts of FL with some shower activity during the next two days. He is expected to drift largely in place for a day or so before moving to the southwest across northern FL. Highs ranging from the 80's north to lower 90's south. Lows mostly in the 60's and 70's. Cooler northern areas after the front moves through but not dramatically so.

Trajectory weather: Partly cloudy through the forecast. 30% chance of showers near the source today, 20% in southeast GA. Slight chance of showers in northwest GA Wednesday afternoon. High in the mid-80's today, near 90 Wednesday. Low near 70.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** Mixed conditions for survivable transport and deposition today. No rain expected tonight. Surviving airborne spores not likely to live long during transport Wednesday. Moderate Risk for southern SC, Weakly Moderate Risk for southeast GA. Low Risk beyond. On Wednesday.... the trajectory moves northwest and north through SC. Mixed conditions are expected. Moderate Risk for southern and east-central SC for Wednesday's event. Low Risk otherwise. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.