FORECAST SUMMARY - Thursday, October 3
*** Hurricane Lili invades the central Gulf coast on Thursday. As Lili's remnants move north and northeast ahead of an approaching cold front.... heavy rain will move into the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and Northeast on Thursday night, Friday, and Friday night. Light rain along a stationary front will occur in the mid-Atlantic region Thursday and Friday. Some scattered showers are expected in the Southeast. Other areas will be dry Thursday and Friday. The cold front will push east of the mountains during the weekend as it loses much of its punch. Some isolated showers are possible in southern areas. A second cold front will move through eastern U.S. on Monday, kicking off some isolated to scattered showers. This second front will usher in drier air and more seasonable temperatures. Unseasonable warm many areas until then.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY:
In the Southeast..... Low Threat from the central FL and Charleston, SC sources with Low Risk in these areas. Airborne spores from the southern GA region will affect areas to the north. Moderate Risk Thursday for eastern and northern AL, central TN, and western KY. Low Risk near the source and beyond western KY. Friday's trajectory moves north and northeast. Moderate Risk Friday for all of GA but the southeast, western SC, and western NC. Low Risk otherwise.
In the mid-Atlantic region..... dry weather will dominate in NC and southern VA with Low Risk for that area. Transport from the Painter, VA and Carney's Point, NJ sources may affect growing areas in the upper mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate Risk Thursday for northern MD, northern DE, New Jersey, eastern PA, southeast NY, and southern New England (much of CT / RI / MA). Moderate Risk Friday for nothern and eastern MD, Delaware, New Jersey, eastern PA, and central and eastern NY. Low Risk otherwise.
In the Ohio Valley.... active weather Thursday and Friday. Trajectories are moving north / northeast ahead of the cold front. Moderate Risk Thursday for eastern IL, western and northern IN, and central and western sections of Michigan's lower peninsula. Low Risk otherwise. Heavy rain from Hurricane Lili will move over the source region on Friday. HIGH RISK for western IN and eastern IL on Friday. Low Risk otherwise.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:
Mostly unfavorable to mixed conditions in the Southeast each day. Mixed conditions in the mid-Atlantic region on Saturday, unfavorable conditions on Sunday. Unfavorable conditions behind the first cold front in the Ohio Valley region on Saturday, giving way to mixed conditions ahead of the second cold front on Sunday.
TK
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Immokalee, FL
Charleston, SC
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.