FORECAST SUMMARY - Thursday, June 20:
*** Disease Update - 20 June *** Downy mildew has been confirmed in Macon County, GA and Florence County, SC. A moderately serious outbreak of downy mildew was confirmed on summer squash in Macon County, GA late today. Little is known about this infection. Lesions are small on the sample submitted, and David Langston states he does not believe the disease has been present for very long. Recent weather has been unfavorable until the past couple of days. The Florence County, SC outbreak is also on summer squash. Small lesions were found on a small fraction of abandoned plants in a field of less than 1 acre. These outbreaks will be included in analysis and evalutation of the forecasts.
*** Disease Update - 18 June *** Downy mildew has been confirmed in Tift County, GA. A 15-acre field of cantaloupe near the town of Omega is estimated to be 90% infected. Samples were brought to the disease clinic last week. Damage is very extensive. A pumpkin sample from Tift County, brought in on the same day, also was diagnosed with downy mildew. Recent weather has been favorable. This Tift County source will be served by trajectories from the nearby Camilla, GA source. Disease activity here will be incorporated into the factors for the forecasts.
*** Disease-favorable weather will continue in the Southeast from Thursday through Sunday, and probably into next week *** A complex interaction of weather features will affect the Southeast for at least the next 4 days. At the surface, high pressure is centered to the north, and a front lies along the Southeast coast into FL. An upper-atmospheric disturbance that has become separated from the main jet stream will be drifting westward through the region today and Friday. Loads of moisture are present in southern and eastern sections, with lesser amounts inland, and dry air in the northwest sections. By Saturday and Sunday, moist air will likely spread farther north and west. The result will be rainy weather for FL and the Atlantic coast.... a zone of mixed conditions farther inland (partly cloudy, chance of showers)....and dry, unfavorable conditions beyond that. Trajectories from the FL sources will be moving mostly north and west. Forecast pathways from the GA and SC sources will be moving southwest to west. Most washout will occur near the sources, but some is also possible along the forecast pathways. There is HIGH RISK each day through Sunday for the entire FL peninsula and southern and eastern SC. Moderate to Strongly Moderate Risk most of the next 4 days for the FL panhandle, southern AL, and a broad area of southern and western GA. Low Risk elsewhere. Weather conditions for Saturday and especially Sunday are in doubt, as this evolving situation has proven difficult for the weather prediction models to simulate. Showery weather may or may not spread to more northern and western sections of the Southeast. Forecasts will be updated this weekend if significant changes occur.
TK
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This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.