North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 27 June 2002
Disease location(s): Southwest Florida
Trajectory Start (shown by black star (*) on map): Immokalee, FL

Regional weather: Thursday, June 27 - Southeast U.S.: Thursday and Friday......a very warm, humid air mass lies over the Southeast. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. Best chances of shower activity will be for the FL peninsula and parts of the eastern Carolinas. Some areas of GA and the FL panhandle may remain dry on Thursday. Highs in the 80's and 90's, lows in the upper 60's and 70's. Saturday and Sunday.... A cold front now in the Northeast / Ohio Valley will push south and east during Thursday and Friday. On Saturday, the front will have made it to the Carolinas / TN, where it will likely stall out. Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected for most of the region. Parts of NC may be dry, but that depends greatly on where the front decides to stop its southward progress. Highs in the 80's and 90's, lows in the 60's and 70's.

Trajectory weather: Partly cloudy early, then increasing clouds with afternoon showers and thunderstorms likely. High around 90. Evening showers likely, then decreasing clouds. Low in the mid-70's. Sunny to partly cloudy Friday with increasing clouds and afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms likely. High in the upper 80's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Serious Threat *** Favorable weather through the weekend. Friday's trajectory moves slowly west. Trajectories Saturday and Sunday are somewhat in doubt, but given the likelihood of rain (and expected washout) for the source region each day, the threat to other regions should be quite limited. Strongly Moderate to HIGH RISK for southern FL Thursday through Sunday. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.