North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 6 June 2002
Disease location(s): Southwest Georgia (Mitchell County)
Trajectory Start (shown by black star (*) on map): Camilla, GA

Regional weather: Thursday, June 6 - Southeast U.S.: A cold front will be moving through the Southeast during the next two days. Increasing cloudiness western sections and FL with showers and thunderstorms moving in this afternoon. Sunny to partly cloudy eastern sections with showers and thunderstorms beginning late today and continuing tonight. Drying beginning in the north and west on Friday; chance of showers south and east. Saturday and beyond... high pressure builds down the eastern side of the mountains. Sunny to partly cloudy and dry for the Carolinas and parts of GA. The front will stall out somewhere near southern GA / northern FL and will serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms in those areas through the weekend. Hot today and Friday with highs in the 80's and 90's, lows in the upper 60's and 70's. Cooler and much less humid behind the front. Highs in the 80's, lows in the 60's. Still humid southern sections with 80's and 90's.

Trajectory weather: Partly to mostly cloudy today with a good chance (50%) of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High in the upper 80's. Mostly cloudy tonight, chance of showers, low near 70. Partly cloudy Friday with a good chance of afternoon showers, high near 90.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** Mixed to mostly favorable conditions for survivable transport today, with showers a good bet. Thunderstorms are already firing at early afternoon. Strongly Moderate Risk for southern GA on Thursday. On Friday..... the trajectory moves little until after midnight Friday, then tracks northwest. Mixed conditions dominate, with a better chance of rainout near the source. Strongly Moderate Risk for southern GA on Friday. Moderate Risk for central AL. Low Risk elsewhere. Saturday and Sunday.... partly cloudy skies but only a 20-30% chance of rain near the source region. Saturday's trajectory moves slowly west along the coast. Impact should be limited to the source region. Moderate Risk to cucurbit crops in southwest GA Saturday and Sunday. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.