North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 4 June 2002
Disease location(s): Central Florida
Trajectory Start (shown by black star (*) on map): Groveland, FL

Regional weather: Tuesday, June 4 - Southeast U.S.: A high pressure ridge centered over the New England states this morning has built down the eastern seaboard. As the High moves east, winds will veer to the southeast, south, and southwest. There is a disturbance in the far southern Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation from this system may affect the Gulf Coast areas on Wednesday..... depending heavily on whether something more organized forms and how it moves. Today, high-level cirrus clouds are being thrown north over parts of FL and GA. A cold front that is taking shape in the country's midsection will approach the Southeast over time but is not expected to move into the region until Thursday. Sunny to partly cloudy and hot today and Wednesday. Chance of isolated to scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms.... mainly for western sections and also due to sea-breeze influences near the coast. Highs in the upper 80's and 90's, lows in the 60's and 70's.

Trajectory weather: Partly sunny today, slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm, high in the mid-90's. Partly cloudy tonight, low near 70. Partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday, chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms, high in the low 90's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** Scenarios from this area are similar to those for southern FL... with the trajectories moving farther inland, and a lesser chance of showers near the source. Today's trajectory makes it to east-central MS in 36 hours. Wednesday's trajectory tracks into southwest GA by Thursday afternoon. Lesser risk near the source as there is only a 20% chance of showers today and Wednesday. Weakly Moderate Risk for central FL each day. Moderate Risk for the western FL panhandle, southwest AL, and east-central MS for Tuesday's event. Moderate Risk for cucurbit crops in the central and eastern FL panhandle, southeast AL, and southwest GA for Wednesday's transport event. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.