North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 27 August 2002
Disease location(s): Eastern North Carolina (Edgecombe and Wayne Counties) Trajectory Starts (shown by black star (*) on map): Pinetops, NC and Goldsboro, NC

Regional weather: Tuesday, August 27 - Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic states: Major changes have occurred over the weekend. Three main weather features come into play. A low pressure area in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere has become cut off from the main flows; it now sits over eastern TN. High pressure is centered off the Atlantic coast, and a stationary front lies across the Southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions. The upper-level Low and the surface High are directing huge amounts of moisture into the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states. The front is providing a focusing mechanism. The result.... mostly cloudy skies and occasional showers and thunderstorms nearly region-wide for Tuesday and Wednesday. Blessedly cooler temperatures are expected also with highs in the 70's and 80's, lows mostly in the 60's.

Trajectory weather: Mostly cloudy through the forecast. 70-80% chance of rain through the period. High today upper 70's, low tonight upper 60's, high Wednesday low 80's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Serious Threat *** Very favorable weather near the source and along the forecast trajectories Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday's trajectories move west and northwest through central NC. The bulk of spore washout should occur during the first 12-18 hours of transport. HIGH RISK for central and eastern NC Tuesday and Wednesday. Low Risk otherwise. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.