FORECAST SUMMARY : Thursday, September 13:
*** Forecasts are abbreviated today (no individual source forecasts). A weather synopsis and risk assessments are given below, along with trajectories for the various source areas.
*** Disease Update - September 11: We have three new outbreaks to report. Steve Johnston reported an infection on cucumber in southern NJ on September 10. This small, non-serious outbreak is in Cumberland County in fungicide test plots at the Rutgers Agricultural Research and Extension Center. Also on September 10, Dan Egel reported an outbreak in a research plot at the Southwest Purdue Ag Center, in Vincennes, IN. A one-acre field of pumpkin is completely infected with downy mildew. He estimates that there will be few vines left in one week, with pumpkins very close to harvest. This morning, Sam Alexander, with the Eastern Shore AREC (Virginia Tech), reported an outbreak on pumpkin in Painter, VA, in southern Accomack County. The infection developed in a pumpkin disease research area. Trajectories for the southwest IN and extreme eastern VA sources are given below.
*** The major weather factors during the next four days are the tropical system in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, a cold front moving south and east from the Great Lakes, and cool Canadian high pressure behind the cold front *** Now Tropical Storm Gabrielle, the system that has already brought heavy rains to much of FL will continue to do so for the next several days. It's future track is quite uncertain. The current best guess is that the storm will remain fairly stationary for two days and then begin a slow move to the northeast during the weekend. Gabrielle could easily be a hurricane by that time. Clouds and rain are likely over the FL peninsula and nearby areas of southern GA. Coastal areas of the southern Atlantic states may also be affected later this weekend. Meanwhile.... a cold front will push rapidly southeastward through the eastern U.S., reaching the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf Coast by Saturday morning. Rain is likely later today and Friday in the Northeast and upper mid-Atlantic regions. However, with dry air already in place over the eastern U.S., most areas will see only increased cloudiness and a few isolated showers as the front passes. Behind the front is the first taste of fall weather. Unseasonably cool temperatures and dry weather are expected for many days after the front passes over a large portion of the eastern U.S. Highs in the 70's and 80's and lows in the 50's and 60's will be replaced by highs in the 60's and 70's and lows in the 40's and 50's.
*** The most favorable conditions for disease development are in southern New England*** There is Moderate Risk today, HIGH RISK Friday for southern New England cucurbit crops, especially near the source area in MA. Low Risk Saturday and Sunday in this region as the conditions dry out and temperatures sink into the 40's for overnight lows. In the Southeast... current forecasts for the source area in southwest GA indicate mostly unfavorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition as trajectories move southwest. Low Risk for this area. However, if Gabrielle decides to move in a more northerly fashion, conditions could become very favorable for disease development Saturday and Sunday. Elsewhere.... conditions will be unfavorable for disease development through Sunday. Localized disease development is possible near the source areas if they receive some rain, but the long-range threat, and the Risk to the crops, are Low.
TK
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Immokalee, FL
El Campo, TX
Charleston, SC
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.