North Carolina State University Downy Mildew Forecast

Date Issued: 5 September 2000
Disease location(s): Central Florida (Sumter County)
Trajectory Start (shown by black star (*) on map): Webster, FL

Regional weather: Tuesday, September 5 - Southeast / Lower mid-Atlantic: Broad dome of high pressure is pushing a cold front southward through the central and eastern portions of the U.S. Continued unsettled in the mid-Atlantic and Southeast today and Wednesday. Mostly cloudy or overcast both days region-wide. Rain/showers/thunderstorms likely in the Southeast and parts of southeast NC both days. Little to no rain expected for most of the mid-Atlantic. Cool with highs in the 60's and 70's mid-Atlantic, 80's Southeast. Lows in the 50's to 70's.

Trajectory weather: Variably cloudy with a good chance of thunderstorms today, high in the low 90's. Chance of showers overnight, low in the low 70's. Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely on Wednesday, high in the 80's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Serious Threat *** Conditions are favorable for disease development in this area. Survivable transport is probable; however, the expected widespread nature of the shower/thunderstorm activity implies most (if not all) washout of spores near the source. Wednesday's trajectory moves northwest at a slightly faster pace, with similar conditions applying. Strongly Moderate Risk for central and northern FL today and Wednesday. Low Risk (due to this source) for areas beyond. TK

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616. This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.