FORECAST DISCUSSION: Monday, May 31: *** Blue mold has been reported in Kentucky *** Bill Nesmith has confirmed an outbreak of blue mold in Burning Springs, Kentucky. This community is located in Clay County in southeast Kentucky. Disease is present in greenhouses and outdoor plant beds at a commercial transplant production farm and plants have been moved to other counties. Dr. Nesmith estimates that blue mold was introduced in early to mid-May via airborne transport. This is a Serious Source and it will be added to the forecasts immediately. The source at Corpus Christi, TX will be dropped from the forecast rotation. However, given the threat that the southern Texas region could pose to growers in the western Ohio Valley, we will continue to monitor trajectories from this area and reports will be produced as needed.
*** The new source in southeast Kentucky is a Serious Threat early this week. *** Trajectories are moving north to northeast Monday and Tuesday. On Monday, there is Moderate Risk for growers in eastern KY, southern OH, and southern Ontario, Canada. On Tuesday, there is HIGH RISK for eastern KY and Strongly Moderate Risk for Ohio.
*** Growers in the southern Appalachian Mountains are also at risk of disease development. *** Spores will be travelling northward from the southern GA region Monday and Tuesday. Conditions are somewhat favorable for transport and deposition. Growers near the source region will be at Low Risk. Growers in the southern Appalachian Mountains are at Weakly Moderate Risk on Monday, Moderate Risk on Tuesday.
*** The sources in the Carolinas are Low Threats early this week.*** Sunny, dry weather should hinder survivable transport of any airborne spores. TK
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
Seriously Threatening Sources: Burning Springs, KY
HIGH RISK areas: Eastern KY on Tuesday
*** NEW FEATURE ***
County Map of New and Existing Outbreaks, 1999
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
San Antonio de los Banos, Cuba
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Corpus Christi, Texas
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 31 May 1999.
