FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, May 28: *** Blue mold has been reported in South Carolina *** Bruce Fortnum has confirmed blue mold in a small tobacco field in Williamsburg County, SC, near the town of Greeleyville. Development is very light and scattered across the field. Conditions have recently been unfavorable for disease development. This source is being added to the forecasts.
*** All sources are Low Threats this weekend. *** Conditions across the southeast U.S. are mostly unfavorable for disease development the next few days with Low Risk to growers. The only question mark is the sources in southern GA and northern FL. Trajectories move north and west each day. Current forecasts have partly cloudy skies near the source each day, so survivable transport is unlikely. However, there's a chance of widely scattered showers or thunderstorms near the source and for part of the forecast pathways each day. Long-range transport and effective deposition appear unlikely at this time, though some localized disease development may occur. Low Risk to growers along the pathways, Low to Weakly Moderate Risk near the source. To be on the safe side, growers in central Tennessee may want to scout their fields late next week to check for signs of disease. If the situation changes significantly, forecasts will be updated as soon as possible on Monday. The Texas source region is not a threat this weekend. TK
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
Seriously Threatening Sources: None
HIGH RISK areas: None
*** NEW FEATURE ***
County Map of New and Existing Outbreaks, 1999
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
San Antonio de los Banos, Cuba
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 26 May 1999.
