Saturday Update May 22: Weather situation is going pretty much as expected although shower and thunderstorm activity is more scattered than isolated......a bit more than may have been anticipated yesterday. Today's trajectories from the S GA / N FL region are moving slower and more easterly than yesterday's runs, with the Moultrie trajectory crossing the southern tip of SC by 8am local time Sunday. A lot more spore death than survival still holds for today.....but a few areas in southeast GA or northern FL that receive rain are likely in the Weakly Moderate category rather than Low. Low Risk remains for growers in the Southeast on Sunday. With partly cloudy skies expected in southern GA and only a slight chance of showers, survivable transport is unlikely, as is effective deposition. Monday's release event is another story as conditions are expected to be favorable for disease development over the Southeast. I anticipate at least Moderate Risk for growers in the southern GA / northern FL region, with heightened risk for some growers in the Carolinas possible. TK
FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, May 21: *** Paul Bertrand reports that blue mold is now scattered over the entire Georgia growing belt. *** Conditions have been dry with some morning dew. Disease is still active but has not increased significantly.
*** Most sources are Low Threats Friday through Sunday *** A weak disturbance will move through the Southeast this weekend, but sky conditions near the source region will be unfavorable for survivable transport. Any shower or thunderstorm activity will likely be isolated to scattered with no substantial amounts of rain expected. Low Risk to growers in the Southeast U. S. Friday through Sunday. Conditions are also unfavorable in Mexico and southern Texas. The lone exception is western Cuba, where a possible tropical system may bring favorable conditions on Sunday. The situation is uncertain and there is no long-range threat, but localized disease development is possible on Saturday and may be likely on Sunday. Your forecaster will monitor the situation closely this weekend. Updated forecasts will be posted on Saturday afternoon if necessary. TK
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
Seriously Threatening Sources: None
HIGH RISK areas: None
County Map of New and Existing Outbreaks, 1999
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
None
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 21 May 1999.
