FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, June 30: *** Blue Mold Update *** New information from Tom Melton in NC indicates a substantial increase in disease activity in the eastern part of that state. A dozen counties in the central and southern coastal plains have confirmed blue mold and there are several others in the south-central section of the piedmont. Heavy damage is present in some fields.
*** Favorable weather for blue mold continues......and a dangerous situation is occurring for growers in the mid-Atlantic and southern New England *** Airborne spores from several different sources are converging on the growing areas of Maryland, Pennsylvania, and southern New England during the next two days. Growers in southern New England are at Low Risk on Wednesday, but HIGH RISK for Thursday. Deposition will take place on Friday. There is HIGH RISK for the Pennsylvania growing areas for Wednesday and Thursday. The Maryland growing areas are at Strongly Moderate Risk today, HIGH RISK on Thursday. Deposition in these locations will take place late Wednesday night or late Thursday night.
Further south.......growers in south-central Virginia will be at Moderate Risk today and Thursday. Growers in the coastal plains of VA and NC will be at HIGH RISK on Wednesday, Strongly Moderate Risk on Thursday. Growers in central NC and eastern SC face Strongly Moderate Risk for Wednesday, Moderate Risk for Thursday. The southern GA / northern FL region is at HIGH RISK on Wednesday, Moderate Risk on Thursday. In the mountains..... growers in southwest VA, northeast TN, and the central and southern mountains of NC are at Moderate Risk on Wednesday, increasing to Strongly Moderate Risk on Thursday.
In the Ohio Valley.... there is Moderate Risk for eastern and west-central KY and southern IN on Wednesday. On Thursday, threats increase dramatically with HIGH RISK for a broad area of central and eastern KY, southern Ohio, and western WV.
The extended forecasts for the upcoming weekend indicate a return to hot, dry weather over much of the growing regions. TK
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
Seriously Threatening Sources: Grapevine, NC; Comfort, NC; Ellerbe, NC; Burning Springs, KY; Clarksville, TN
HIGH RISK areas: Southern New England, PA, MD, eastern NC, southeast VA, southern GA/northern FL; southern Ohio, western WV, all but western KY.
*** NEW FEATURE ***
County Map of New and Existing Outbreaks, 1999
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
San Antonio de los Banos, Cuba
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Corpus Christi, Texas
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 30 June 1999.
