FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, June 2: *** We have 2 more reports of blue mold *** Tom Melton states that blue mold has been discovered in Moore and Richmond Counties in south-central North Carolina. Disease activity is extremely light in these two separate field locations. Bill Nesmith in Kentucky has confirmed blue mold near Shelbyville in the north-central section of the state. Blue mold is present in both greenhouses and the field. Disease activity in the field has been minimal due to the unfavorable weather in recent weeks. Dr. Nesmith also suspects that there may be other cases of blue mold scattered in eastern Kentucky. However, field infections may have gone undiscovered because of largely unfavorable conditions. Due to network problems at the Forecast Center this afternoon, we were unable to add either of these new outbreaks to the forecasts. However, the Risk Assessments that follow include the threat posed by these new discoveries.
*** The Kentucky sources are Serious Threats Wednesday, Moderate Threats Thursday. *** Showers and thunderstorms moved through Kentucky during the spore release hours on Wednesday, so the grand majority of airborne spores were likely deposited near the source areas. There is HIGH RISK for growers in north-central and eastern Kentucky, southeast Indiana, and southwest Ohio. There is Moderate Risk for the rest of southern Ohio and western West Virginia. Conditions will be mixed on Thursday as trajectories move to the south. Chance of rain is slim, but growers in southeast Kentucky and the southern Appalachian Mountains who receive any showers are at Moderate Risk of disease development.
*** The other source regions are Low Threats Wednesday and Thursday *** Recent dry weather has likely suppressed disease activity and sky conditions are unfavorable for survivable transport Wednesday and Thursday. Low Risk for growers along the eastern seaboard.
*** For the extended outlook, this weekend's weather is expected to be sunny, hot, and dry over much of the eastern U. S. We anticipate Low Threats, with Low Risk to growers through Sunday. TK
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
Seriously Threatening Sources: Burning Springs, KY
HIGH RISK areas: Eastern and north-central KY, southeast IN, southwest OH on Wednesday
*** NEW FEATURE ***
County Map of New and Existing Outbreaks, 1999
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
San Antonio de los Banos, Cuba
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Corpus Christi, Texas
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 2 June 1999.
