FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, July 9: *** Disease Update *** Blue Mold has been reported in Pennsylvania. John Yocum and Bob Anderson have confirmed blue mold in Lancaster County, PA. Both old and new lesions are present but sporulation levels are quite low. The initial report was delayed due to a communications breakdown. Fortunately, the recent weather in this region has been unfavorable for disease development. To better handle the numerous source regions, the three separate forecasts for the eastern Carolinas have been combined into one forecast. While we will commonly show the Comfort and Ellerbe trajectories, all three trajectories are being used in the analysis since they bracket the region very well. The grouping will be broken apart into separate forecasts if the situation warrants that approach.
*** An approaching cold front is bringing favorable conditions to various areas this weekend. *** On Friday, with the front yet to arrive most growers are at Low Risk. However, southern New England is at Moderate Risk on Friday. Most transport and deposition events will occur on Saturday, when the front is passing through the majority of the growing regions. The largest threat is to the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachian Mountains. There is HIGH RISK for southeast IN, southern OH, central and eastern KY, central and northeast TN, extreme southwest VA, and the central and northern mountains of NC. There is Strongly Moderate Risk for the piedmont of NC. Finally, there is Moderate Risk for southern New England and southeast PA. On Sunday, the front will have moved past many areas but growers to the south will remain at risk. There is HIGH RISK for west-central TN. There is Strongly Moderate Risk for the central and southern mountains of NC, extreme northeast GA, extreme northwest SC, eastern SC, and south-central and southeast NC.
*** In situations like this one the timing and position of the front are critical. The forecasts will be reviewed on Saturday and updates posted if necessary. TK
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
Seriously Threatening Sources: Eastern NC, NC mountains, all Ohio Valley sources
HIGH RISK areas: SE IN, S OH, central and eastern KY, central and NE TN, extreme SW VA, central and N mountains of NC
*** NEW FEATURE ***
County Map of New and Existing Outbreaks, 1999
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
San Antonio de los Banos, Cuba
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Corpus Christi, Texas
Tifton, Georgia
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 9 July 1999.
