FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, July 2: *** Disease Update *** Bill Nesmith reports an increase in disease activity in Kentucky. Some float beds and greenhouses have massive levels. Blue mold in the field remains light to moderate overall, but strong activity is possible in individual locations, particularly where the disease is already established. The Shelbyville site is being returned to the forecasts. With the advent of active blue mold across the Carolinas, southern Appalachian Mountains, and the Ohio Valley, the southern GA/ northern FL site is being dropped from the rotation.
*** After one more day of unsettled weather, conditions will turn unfavorable Saturday through Tuesday. *** Showers and thunderstorms in the Ohio Valley and the chance of rain elsewhere puts growers at risk on Friday. There is HIGH RISK today for north-central TN, west-central KY, and the southern Appalachian Mountains, including the central and northern mountains of NC, northeast TN, southern WV, and southwest VA. There is Moderate Risk for eastern SC, central and eastern NC, southeast and south-central VA, and southern MD. Growers in eastern and northern KY, western WV, southeast IN, and southern OH are also at Moderate Risk on Friday. Saturday through Tuesday, very hot and mostly dry weather will invade the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic states. Growers in the southern Appalachian Mountains will be at Moderate Risk each day since there is a chance of showers in that region. All other growers will be at Low Risk Saturday through Tuesday.
*** A new report is just in. Jim Lamondia in Connecticut reports that blue mold has been confirmed on broadleaf transplants from a plant bed in Hartford County, and also in the field on shade tobacco. The transplant infection consisted of new lesions, some of which were sporulating. Most lesions on the shade tobacco were not sporulating. The shade tobacco had been treated with Ridomil and Acrobat MZ. Conditions are favorable for blue mold in southern New England on Friday. Hot, dry weather will move into this region for Saturday through Tuesday, with Low Risk to growers. This source will be added to the forecasts next week.
*** There will be no production forecasts on Monday, July 5, in celebration of our nation's birthday. TK
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
Seriously Threatening Sources: Grapevine, NC; Clarksville, TN
HIGH RISK areas: Southern Appalachian Mountains, north-central TN, west-central KY
*** NEW FEATURE ***
County Map of New and Existing Outbreaks, 1999
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
San Antonio de los Banos, Cuba
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Corpus Christi, Texas
Tifton, Georgia
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 2 July 1999.
