FORECAST DISCUSSION: Monday, July 19: *** Disease Update *** Blue Mold has been reported in extreme southwestern Virginia. Chuck Johnson informs us that blue mold was discovered last week in Lee and Washington Counties, both in greenhouses and in the field. Infections are generally light to moderate and active sporulation was observed. This source is being added to the forecasts. In order to better manage the the increasing number of sites, the Grapevine, NC and Jonesville, VA (Lee County) locations will be combined into one forecast as the "Southern Appalachian Mountains". The Burning Springs and Mount Sterling sites in Kentucky are being similarly combined into one forecast as "Eastern Kentucky". As always....significant differences in the trajectories/forecasts for the source sites in combination will be noted in the forecasts, or the combination will be split into separate forecasts.
*** No long-range transport and deposition events are expected Monday or Tuesday *** Some localized and short-range disease development is possible, however. The most favorable weather is in the Northeast and northern mid-Atlantic, where a front is pushing southward through the region. On Monday, there is Strongly Moderate Risk for southern New England and Moderate Risk for southeast Pennsylvania. These areas will be at Low Risk on Tuesday. Growers in southern Maryland are at Low Risk both days. In the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachian Mountains...... there is Moderate Risk for extreme southwestern VA, southern WV, eastern KY, and southern Ohio Monday and Tuesday. Growers in central KY and north-central TN will be at Weakly Moderate to Moderate Risk Monday and Tuesday. In addition, growers in northeast TN and western NC are at Low Risk Monday, Moderate Risk Tuesday. Conditions are mostly unfavorable in the eastern Carolinas early this week. There is Low Risk on Monday, Weakly Moderate Risk for eastern NC on Tuesday. TK
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
Seriously Threatening Sources: None
HIGH RISK areas: None
*** NEW FEATURE ***
County Map of New and Existing Outbreaks, 1999
(Red = New, 1 to 7 days; Blue = Active, > 7 days; Green = Old)
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
San Antonio de los Banos, Cuba
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Corpus Christi, Texas
Tifton, Georgia
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
