FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, April 14: *** A complex weather situation is bringing trouble today and Thursday *** A vigorous low pressure system is approaching the southeast U.S. from the Plains. Ahead of the front, trajectories from the southern GA and northern FL source regions are moving north on Wednesday into the Ohio Valley. On Thursday, trajectories move northeast through the Carolinas. Conditions are mostly unfavorable for survivable transport or effective deposition on Wednesday, with Low Risk to growers near the source and along the forecast path. However, the potential for long-range transport can not be ruled out, so growers in the following areas should watch their plants closely in the coming days for signs of disease: northern GA, far southwest NC, central and eastern TN, central and eastern KY, and southern IN. These are the areas with the best chance of spore deposition Wednesday night. On Thursday, conditions in the Southeast will be favorable for survivable transport and effective deposition. Growers in northern FL, southern GA, SC and the eastern half of NC are at Moderate Risk of disease development. Growers in southeast GA and the coastal plains of the Carolinas will be at Strongly Moderate Risk, as these regions will have the highest concentration of spores moving through them. Deposition can take place any time between noon and midnight on Thursday.
*** The other source areas are Low Threats Wednesday and Thursday, with Low Risk to growers. *** TK
Blue Mold Active in the Plant Bed and Greenhouse (click on small image for larger image)
What should one look for?
Seriously Threatening Sources: None
HIGH RISK areas: None, though coastal regions of the Carolinas and Georgia are at Strongly Moderate Risk on Thursday.
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
None
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 14 April 1999.