FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, May 9, 1997 - *** New source in Grady County in SW Georgia *** Tim Flanders and Paul Bertrand send word today confirming blue mold near Reno, Georgia. There are fresh, strongly sporulating lesions at this moderately serious source. This location is included in today's forecasts. The source is a mild threat today, posing a Moderate Risk to growers near the source and in S Georgia, but a lesser danger Saturday and Sunday as conditions become unfavorable for disease development.

The situation for the N Florida source is similar to that of its Georgia neighbor. This source presents a mild threat which should be limited to the N Florida region today and to northern and central Florida tomorrow. There is a slight risk for growers in N Florida today, N and central Florida on Saturday. Little threat from this source by Sunday.

The eastern Mexico source region near Papantla is also a mild threat this weekend. Production or wild tobacco growing north of the source is at Moderate risk from today's release. Some localized development is possible Saturday and Sunday.

Conditions in S Texas will be favorable for blue mold all weekend. No long-range transport is anticipated, but some localized disease development is likely on the wild tobacco in that region.

The W Cuba and W Mexico sources are minimal threats for the next several days. Conditions are unfavorable for survivable long-range transport, and no localized disease development is expected. TK

SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: None

HIGH RISK GROWING AREAS: None

• Gainesville, Florida
• Reno, Georgia
• Pinar del Rio, Cuba
• Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
• Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
• Uvalde, Texas
• Weslaco, Texas
• Corpus Christi, Texas

***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.

Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 9 May 1997.