NC, SC, GA, N FL, S AL, E TN, E KY, S and SW VA, WV.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, May 30, 1997 - *** First, an update on the threatening Lizzie, NC source from Thursday, May 29 *** The Thursday trajectory from eastern NC took a very different track than what was forecast on Wednesday. Instead of flowing westward and then turning north, the trajectory moved more to the southwest after release and then persisted in that direction, moving slowly through NC and into SC during the day on Friday. This means that growers from Virginia northward were at low risk of disease development from Thursday's release. Growers in S NC and eastern SC who received a light shower probably had some live spores come down. However, most are still airborne and will likely be washed out on Saturday when showers move into the region. My apologies to growers and any other concerned people who may have been unduly alarmed. In our defense, I offer the fact that after checking on hundreds of these "next day" trajectories to ensure their accuracy, nearly all of them have been very close to the original forecast. This is easily the worst case I have seen over the past year and a half. Sometimes in forecasting, a small change at the beginning leads to a very different ending, and that is what happened in this case.
We have a new report of blue mold in Georgia. Paul Bertrand informs us that blue mold has been found in Pierce, Lanier, and Wayne counties. The Pierce and Lanier discoveries are small, spotty cases from a single field, but the Wayne County area has blue mold throughout two 30-40 acre fields about five or six miles apart. Lesions are small but active. Given the location and strength of this site, we are adding Jesup, Georgia in Wayne County as a new source, and dropping the diminished Gainesville source from the forecasts.
For the forecasts this weekend, the weather conditions present a very dire situation. Conditions range from favorable to very favorable for blue mold all over the eastern U.S., and unsettled weather will persist through early next week. Southerly winds are pushing spores from the Southeast northward to the Southern Appalachian mountains and the Ohio Valley region. The Lizzie, NC source will be affecting the mid-Atlantic and central Appalachian mountain areas. A huge section of the Southeast and Ohio Valley regions are at HIGH RISK of disease development today and Saturday. Deposition of spores can occur any time tonight, Saturday, or Sunday. Given the situation, forecasts today will cover Friday and Saturday, and new forecasts will be generated Sunday. Here are the HIGH RISK areas for today and Saturday: NC, SC, GA, N FL, S AL, E TN, E KY, S and SW VA, and WV. It's very likely that Sunday's forecasts will include some of these same areas as High Risks also. TK
SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: Lizzie, NC; Reno, GA; Live Oak, FL; Jesup, GA
NC, SC, GA, N FL, S AL, E TN, E KY, S and SW VA, WV.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 30 May 1997.