FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, May 2, 1997 - **** Shades of last weekend **** Yet another frontal system is approaching the east coast of the U.S. Conditions in the SE U.S. are somewhat favorable for disease development today and will be quite favorable tomorrow. Spores from the Gainesville source will be joined by others from the source in Cuba. They will interact with the weather to place growers in Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas at risk of disease development. The Gainesville source is a Serious Threat on Saturday. Growers in N Florida, S Georgia, and southern and eastern SC face a High Risk of blue mold development this weekend. There is a Moderate risk for growers in SE Alabama, central Florida, and eastern NC. By Sunday, conditions in this region should be much less favorable for blue mold.

For the other areas in S Texas and Mexico, conditions will be mostly unfavorable for disease development, with no long-range transport anticipated from any of the source areas. However, there's a slight risk of localized diesase development along the S Texas coast and the eastern coast of Mexico. TK

SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: Gainesville, FL

N Florida, S Georgia, S&E South Carolina

• Gainesville, Florida
• Pinar del Rio, Cuba
• Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
• Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
• Uvalde, Texas
• Weslaco, Texas
• Corpus Christi, Texas

***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.

Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 2 May 1997.