Thursday's Release: Northern & Eastern WV, PA
FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, May 28, 1997 - *** First report of blue mold on field tobacco in Lenoir County, NC *** Blue mold has been discovered near Mewborn's Crossroads, 5-6 miles north of Kinston, NC, in three fields that total about 13 acres. Lesions are large and are actively sporulating. This source is about 10 miles away from the Lizzie, NC disease site, so trajectories from Lizzie will be used for this location also.
More blue mold has been found in Florida, in Lafayette, Suwannee, and Hamilton counties, northwest of Gainesville. Few details are available at this time, but this source will be added to the forecasts, with trajectories starting from Live Oak, Florida.
Outlooks for Tuesday, May 27 The source at Lizzie, NC posed a threat to growers in eastern NC, SC, GA, and burley growers in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Conditions were generally favorable for survivable transport of spores and later deposition. It appears as if most spores were washed out somewhere in SC, GA, E TN, W NC, or perhaps E KY. Growers in all these areas face a Strongly Moderate Risk of disease development from Tuesday's release. Elsewhere, spores released from the Reno, GA or the N FL locations were washed out near the source sites, as a broad area of rain and t'storms moved through the region during the afternoon. Localized disease development is highly likely. The TX sources posed no threat for Tuesday's release.
The Lizzie, NC source is the main threat for Wednesday's forecasts. Heavy sporulation is occurring at the E NC sources. The threat is low today, as abundant sunshine should kill any airborne spores. However, this source is a SERIOUS THREAT for Thursday's release. Conditions will be very favorable for survivable transport and effective deposition. HIGH RISK areas include northern and eastern WV and Pennsylvania. Growers located in the coastal plains or piedmont of NC, central and western VA, or southern WV face a Strongly Moderate risk of disease development.
The sources in the Southeast are local or short-range threats today and Thursday. Showers moved through the southern GA/northern FL region in the early afternoon hours today, so washout of airborne spores near the sources was likely. For Thursday's release, these three sources put growers in N FL, S GA, and S AL at Moderate risk of disease development.
No long-range threat is anticipated from the Texas sources today or Thursday. However, some localized development is possible, especially near the coastal areas. TK
SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: Lizzie, NC
Thursday's Release: Northern & Eastern WV, PA
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 28 May 1997.