Sunday's Release: N FL, S GA, NE NC, E MD, DE, NJ, E PA FORECAST DISCUSSION: Sunday, May 25, 1997 - *** First, a note on Saturday's release.... *** There were no long-range threats from Saturday's spore release except for the Reno, GA source. The trajectory from Reno flowed more northward than anticipated, much like the one on Friday. Some spores were rained out near the source or elsewhere in S Georgia, but others remained airborne and traveled toward the Appalachian Mountain region. Burley growers who received showers Saturday night may have had live spores deposited under conditions suitable for infection.
*** Turning to the current situation..... *** Lizzie, NC and Reno, GA are Serious Threats Sunday and Monday. Conditions during the latter part of the Memorial Day weekend are quite favorable for disease development. Many growing regions from the Deep South to the mid-Atlantic states are at Moderate or HIGH Risk for blue mold, especially from Sunday's release. The risk assessments are as follows: For Sunday's release..... HIGH RISK areas include N FL, S GA, NE NC, E MD, DE, NJ, and E PA. There is also Moderate risk for growers in SE VA. Deposition of spores will take place Sunday or Sunday night. For Monday's release......HIGH RISK areas are the coastal plains of E NC. Moderate risk areas include S GA, N FL, and S SC. Deposition will take place during the day on Monday or during Monday night. The Gainesville, FL source also threatens some nearby areas, but the regions at risk are also threatened by the much stronger Reno, GA source. All three of the eastern U.S. sources should be much lesser threats by Tuesday. The possibility of localized disease development near the Reno source area is the main concern. The risk to growers should be low, or perhaps weakly moderate in the SW GA region for Tuesday's release.
*** The Texas sources will be low threats Sunday through Tuesday. *** Conditions in the S Texas region are expected to be sunny and hot. Airborne spores should be killed by solar exposure during transport, and the weather won't even be supporting localized disease development.
The regular forecast schedule will resume on Wednesday, May 28, 1997. TK
SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: Lizzie, NC; Reno, GA
Sunday's Release: N FL, S GA, NE NC, E MD, DE, NJ, E PA
Monday's Release: E NC (All of the coastal plains)
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 25 May 1997.