SW GA, N FL
FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, May 23, 1997 - *** First Report of Blue Mold in North Carolina *** Blue mold was reported and confirmed yesterday (22 May) near the town of Lizzie in Greene County, NC. Sporulating lesions and some systemic symptoms were observed. This source is being added to the forecasts immediately. There is little threat today or Saturday from this source, but conditions may be more favorable by Sunday as weather systems move closer to the east coast.
*** There is a threat to burley growers this weekend *** Reports from Tom Kucharek in Florida and Paul Bertrand in Georgia indicate that the Gainesville source has diminished in strength but the Reno source is still very active. Trajectories from these sources closely parallel each other today and Saturday, and conditions will be reasonably favorable for disease development along the way. Today's pathways flow northward toward the southern Appalachian Mountains. Fortunately, a broad area of showers and storms has been moving through the S GA and N FL region today, and there is a good chance that most spores will be washed out near the source areas. Tomorrow's trajectories go northeastward through GA and the Carolinas. Here are the COMBINED risk assessments from Reno and Gainesville for Friday and Saturday: For Friday's release, there is a High Risk for N Florida and SW Georgia, a Moderate risk for burley growers in the mountain regions of GA, NC, and TN, and a low risk for growers farther north. For Saturday's release, there is a Strongly Moderate Risk for N Florida, GA, and SC, and a Weakly Moderate risk for NC and eastern VA.
The weather in southern Texas continues to be favorable for blue mold. No long-range threat is expected, but localized development on the wild tobacco in the region is likely this weekend.
Trajectories for Sunday are not yet available, but the weather forecasts are predicting unsettled weather for the Southeast. Your Forecaster will keep tabs on the situation. At this point, it's likely that some additional forecasts will be produced on Saturday or Sunday. TK
SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: Reno, GA
SW GA, N FL
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 23 May 1997.