FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, May 21, 1997 - The mid-week situation is much less threatening than what was happening Monday and Tuesday. The source areas in the SE U.S. are only mild, short-range threats. Growers in extreme southern Georgia and northern and central Florida are at Moderate risk of disease development from today's spore release. There is a slight risk for these same areas from Thursday's release. Conditions north of this region are unfavorable for blue mold and the winds shouldn't guide any spores in that direction.
The weather in the southern Texas area will continue to support some localized blue mold development. No long-range threat is expected from this region, but the cloudy skies and chance of showers means there is a Moderate risk of disease development the next two days, with the best opportunities near the coast and in deep south Texas.
*** Forecasting Note *** The most recent weather data for the trajectory model is not yet available, so the trajectories will be about one day long rather than two. However, I'm confident of the forecasts, and when new data becomes available I will make any adjustments if necessary. TK
SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: None
HIGH RISK GROWING AREAS: None
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 21 May 1997.