FORECAST DISCUSSION: Monday, May 12, 1997 - *** HIGH RISK Situation for Florida and Georgia *** The Gainesville and Reno sources are serious threats today and Tuesday. Looking at both sources, southern GA, SE AL, and northern and central FL are HIGH RISK AREAS for today's release. Northern Florida is again a High Risk for Tuesday's release, and S GA and central FL are Strongly Moderate Risks tomorrow. Conditions should be much less favorable for disease development by midweek.

Conditions is S Texas are again favorable for disease development in that area. The weather situation is still unfolding, but at this time it appears that long-range transport out of the region is unlikely. Extended forecasts are not encouraging, though, so the disease may continue to develop in S Texas all week.

Now that blue mold is established in the SE U.S., we are dropping some of our source sites, including W Cuba, the two Mexican source sites, and Brownsville, TX. We will continue to monitor these locations, and report on any developments if necessary. TK

SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: Gainesville, FL; Reno, GA

FL, S GA, & SE AL (Monday's release); N Florida (Tuesday's release)

• Gainesville, Florida
• Reno, Georgia
• Uvalde, Texas
• Corpus Christi, Texas

***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.

Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 12 May 1997.