FORECAST DISCUSSION: Monday, March 31, 1997 - Conditions in southern Texas and NE Mexico are again favorable for blue mold development early this week. No long-range threat is expected, but localized disease development is quite likely today and Tuesday.

The source at Papantla, in Veracruz, presents a threat to growers also. Conditions are somewhat favorable for disease development early this week. Growers near the source and in the northern half of Veracruz face a moderate risk today and Tuesday. Elsewhere in Mexico, conditions are mostly unfavorable for blue mold. Other than the ever-present possibility of development near the source, no danger is anticipated. For the Cuban source, some localized disease development is possible on Tuesday. I expect no long-range transport toward any growing areas. TK

SERIOUS THREATS: The Texas sources

HIGH RISK AREAS: S Texas; N Tamaulipa, Mexico

• Pinar del Rio, Cuba
• Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
• San Andres Tuxtla, Veracruz, Mexico
• Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico
• Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
• Uvalde, Texas
• Weslaco, Texas

***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.

Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 31 March 1997.