FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, March 26, 1997 - A cold front that is stalled out near the Texas/Mexico border has brought conditions favorable for disease development to that region. No long-range threat is anticipated, but localized blue mold development is likely through Thursday. Elsewhere in Mexico, conditions are only somewhat favorable for blue mold, and any disease development should be confined to areas near the sources.
The source in Cuba is being watched closely. Spores released in this area yesterday likely died during transport over the Gulf of Mexico. However, conditions in Florida are becoming more favorable for blue mold, and it's possible, though highly unlikely, that a few live spores may be brought down with today's rains. Growers should be alert for any signs of the disease. Trajectories today and Thursday move slowly to the northwest or west. The prolonged exposure to the sun should kill any airborne spores.
THREATENING SOURCES: Papantla, Mexico
HIGH RISK AREAS: S Texas, NE Mexico (Tamaulipa)
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 26 March 1997.