FORECAST DISCUSSION: Monday, March 17, 1997 - The most likely area for disease development is on the wild tobacco in S Texas and NE Mexico. The weather during the weekend was favorable for blue mold, and will continue to be favorable today and Tuesday. Localized disease development in this region is quite likely and it has been designated a High Risk area. No long-range transport is expected, however. Growers along the Veracruz coast of Mexico may also experience local disease development. Elsewhere, sporulation is probable at the sources, but conditions are generally unfavorable for survivable transport of any spores. No long-range threat from any of the sources in Cuba or Mexico is expected today or Tuesday. TK

THREATENING SOURCES: Uvalde and Weslaco, Texas

HIGH RISK AREAS: Southern Texas

• Pinar del Rio, Cuba
• Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
• San Andres Tuxtla, Veracruz, Mexico
• Tapachula, Chiapas, Mexico
• Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
• Uvalde, Texas
• Weslaco, Texas

***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.

Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 17 March 1997.