FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, March 12, 1997 - *** Possible threat to FL/GA growers Thursday and Friday *** Southerly winds ahead of a weather system moving from Texas into the Southeast may act to bring spores from Cuba into the U. S. growing areas Thursday and/or Friday. Fresh data for Thursday's trajectories is not yet available, but I anticipate the need for additional forecasts tomorrow as the situation becomes better defined.
*** New sources *** Tony Keeney, a Botanist at Southwest Texas Junior College, informs us that blue mold is active on wild tobacco in the Uvalde, TX area. This source will be added for today's forecasts. We have also heard reports of active blue mold near Weslaco and San Marcos. We are trying to find out what other areas have the disease present, and we will be adding other source locations in the coming days. No long-range transport out of this region is expected for the next few days.
*** Mexican sources ***The Gulf coast growing areas will be mostly cloudy today and tomorrow, and there may be some light rain today. Conditions there are somewhat favorable for disease development, especially locally, as trajectories are not moving very fast. The weather in the southern and western Mexico production regions remains mostly unfavorable for blue mold, with sunny to partly cloudy skies forecast today and Thursday. TK
THREATENING SOURCES: None.
HIGH RISK AREAS: None.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 12 March 1997.