FORECAST DISCUSSION: Sunday, June 8, 1997 - *** Growers in TN and KY are in great danger from Sunday's spore release from Columbia, TN *** Weather conditions in the Ohio Valley are highly favorable for blue mold development. Spores from the Columbia source are travelling north and east this afternoon, ahead of a long, broken line of showers and thunderstorms that will be moving through the region later. There was no early washout of spores near the source to hinder the potential for long-range transport. Growers in Central Tennessee and the eastern 2/3 of Kentucky are at HIGH RISK of disease development. Areas of southern Ohio and western West Virginia face a Strongly Moderate Risk of disease development. Deposition from today's release is taking place right now in S Central KY and N Central TN and will occur in other areas this evening, tonight, and /or early Monday morning.

There is a Moderate Risk for growers in Alabama and the southern end of the Appalachian Mountains from spores released near Reno, GA. Deposition may occur tonight in Alabama, on Monday in areas of N GA, SW NC, and SE TN.

For the other source regions......spores from the other GA disease locations may affect S AL tomorrow, though the main threat is from the Reno area. Spores from Lizzie, NC are travelling slowly south and southwest with the main body of inoculum moving along the Atlantic coastline. However, some spore death will occur today from solar exposure and no rain is forecast. Growers near the NC or SC coast who happen to get a little light rain may have some live spores brought down, but the risk is low. Some localized disease development is possible near the Lancaster, PA source (Moderate Risk), and in the S Texas region.

Trajectories from Columbia, TN and Reno, GA are given below. Monday's forecasts will be available tomorrow evening. TK

SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: Columbia, TN

Central TN (esp. N Cent.) & Eastern 2/3 of KY

• Reno, Georgia
• Columbia, Tennessee

***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.

Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 8 June 1997.