E NC, NE SC, western halves of TN and KY
FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, June 6, 1997 - *** Weather conditions in the eastern U.S. will remain favorable for blue mold this weekend. *** Unsettled weather persists. The Lizzie, NC and Columbia, TN sources are SERIOUS Threats this weekend; the three S GA sources are localized threats today, and mid-range threats for Saturday. The S Texas region won't threaten any growing areas for the next few days, but localized development is likely in the hill country and possible elsewhere.
Paul Bertrand reports that blue mold is active in about a dozen counties across S GA. These outbreaks are covered well by our trajectory starting points in that region, and the situation will be watched closely. There is a Moderate Risk of localized development in S GA from today's release. The three sources are mid-level threats for Saturday's release, with Moderate Risks for GA, E AL, and the southern end of the Appalachian Mountains.
Resistance to Ridomil has been confirmed for the blue mold in Greene and Lenoir counties in E NC. This source area near Lizzie, NC is a SERIOUS threat today and Saturday, and conditions in the region will stay favorable for disease development on Sunday. Eastern NC is a HIGH RISK area for disease development the next two days. For Saturday's release, NE SC is also a HIGH RISK area, and there is a Moderate Risk for growers near the coasts of SC, GA, and FL.
The western halves of TN and KY are HIGH RISK zones for spore releases from Columbia, TN today and Saturday. This source is a SERIOUS threat this weekend. In addition to the High Risk areas for today's release, there is a Moderate Risk to growers in S Indiana northward to the western side of Lake Michigan. Conditions will remain moderately favorable for disease development on Sunday in the source region.
We have reports of a new disease source in Lancaster County, PA. This source is sporulating and it's a mild threat today and Saturday. There is a Weakly Moderate Risk for E PA and S NY from today's release, and a low to Weakly Moderate Risk to S PA from Saturday's release.
There is no long-range threat from the S Texas region this weekend. Some localized disease development is possible near Corpus Christi, and likely in the hill country near Uvalde. Conditions will remain somewhat favorable for this localized development through the weekend. To make room in the forecasting timetable for new sources, the Uvalde source will be dropped from the full-fledged reporting, but I will continue to monitor the trajectories from that area and report as necessary.
Finally, a note on Thursday's activity. Washout of airborne spores a short time after release was likely for the S GA sources. In addition, the skies in E NC were less cloudy than expected, so the spores from the Lizzie, NC source received a good bit of lethal sunshine. This is good news for the burley growers in the mountains, who were probably at Moderate Risk of disease development from Thursday's release, rather than HIGH. TK
SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: Lizzie, NC; Columbia, TN
E NC, NE SC, western halves of TN and KY
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 6 June 1997.