FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, June 4, 1997 - *** Very Dangerous Situation - All Five Sources in the Eastern U.S. are SERIOUS Threats *** The Outlook at mid-week is just as bad or worse as it was this past weekend! Conditions in the Eastern U.S. remain quite favorable for blue mold development, and the unsettled weather may continue for several days. Many growing areas are at Moderate or High Risk. Not much rain is falling Wednesday afternoon, but shower activity is expected to pick up again on Thursday across the region.

The Columbia, TN source is affecting the growing areas of the western Ohio Valley. Some spores may be washed out in central TN today, but most will be washed out Thursday. HIGH RISK areas from this source include central and western TN, W KY, SE MO, and extreme S IL and IN.

The 3 sources in S Georgia present serious threats to the nearby growing areas. Deposition of airborne spores will mostly occur on Thursday or Thursday night. HIGH RISK areas include S SC, S GA, N FL, and S AL.

Spores from the Lizzie, NC source threaten two different areas. Wednesday's release will send spores southward today and tonight and then westward Thursday over S GA, where they may be washed out along with spores released from the GA sources. Thursday's release will threaten growers near the NC/SC border and burley growers in the southern Appalachian Mountains. HIGH RISK areas from Thursday's release are the mountains of NC, SC, and GA, especially those on the eastern slopes, and there is a Moderate Risk for growers in E TN and the piedmont regions along the NC/SC border. Deposition from Thursday's release will likely begin Thursday evening in the Carolina foothills and continue Thursday night in the mountains.

Finally, the Southern Texas sources will be low threats today and Thursday. Conditions remain unfavorable in that region for blue mold.

SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: ALL 5 EASTERN U.S. SOURCES

Mountains of NC, SC, & GA (esp. E slopes); Central & W TN; W KY; Extreme S IL and IN; S SC; S GA, N FL, S AL

• Lizzie, North Carolina
• Reno, Georgia
• Pearson, Georgia
• Jesup, Georgia
• Columbia, Tennessee
• Uvalde, Texas
• Corpus Christi, Texas

***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.

Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 4 June 1997.