Coastal Plains of NC and NE SC
FORECAST DISCUSSION: Tuesday, June 3, 1997 - *** We have new reports of blue mold in Georgia and Tennessee. *** Blue mold has been confirmed in Atkinson County, Georgia and Maury County, Tennessee. About 1/3 of an 8-acre field has been damaged at the GA site. The blue mold in TN was discovered in a plant bed and has been present two or three weeks. Pearson, GA and Columbia, TN will represent these new disease locations, and the Live Oak, FL source will be dropped from the forecasts. Any spores from the Live Oak area will follow the Pearson trajectories very closely, but they will tend to trail spores from Pearson by several hours.
Paul Shoemaker reports that laboratory tests have confirmed that the blue mold found in Greene County, NC is metalaxyl insensitive. This isolate came from plant beds that had not been treated with any fungicide. Tests on the samples from Lenoir County, NC are in progress and results should be available soon.
Considering the general situation, the Outlook for today's forecast update could be a lot worse. The Lizzie, NC source is a SERIOUS Threat. There is a HIGH RISK of disease development for the coastal plains of NC and NE SC, and a low risk for growers farther south near the coasts of S SC and GA. A massive area of showers and t'storms moved through the High Risk area during Tuesday afternoon, so it's very likely that all spores were washed out somewhere in that zone. The other sources in the eastern U.S. pose only mid-level threats for Tuesday's release. There is a Moderate Risk of disease development in central Tennessee (low for AL), and the three sources in S Georgia are causing Moderate Risks for growers in N FL and S GA. In S Texas, conditions continue to be unfavorable for localized disease development, trajectories do not move toward any growing areas, and the odds of spore survival during transport remains very low. These sources are minimal threats on Tuesday.
Today's trajectories are given below, and we will return to full-blown forecasts on Wednesday. TK
SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: Lizzie, NC
Coastal Plains of NC and NE SC
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.
Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 3 June 1997.
