FORECAST DISCUSSION: Monday, June 30, 1997 - *** If you are growing tobacco in the eastern United States or southern Canada, you are at no less than Moderate Risk of disease development early this week !!! *** The weather has again turned very favorable for disease development. There was very little spore death from Monday's spore release due to extensive cloud cover. Deposition is occurring today in the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachian Mountains. Spores released on Tuesday will join any spores still airborne from Monday's release, and many areas will be hit by spores from more than one source. Deposition on Tuesday is expected in the eastern Ohio Valley, in the southern Appalachian Mountains, and in the states along the eastern seaboard.

HIGH RISK areas today and Tuesday include almost all of the growing regions in the Ohio Valley, all of the growing areas in the southern Appalachian Mountains, and many of the growing areas in the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic states. Only the growers in western KY and western TN are at Low Risk today and Tuesday. Following is a list of the HIGH RISK areas. If your location is not among them, then you are at Moderate Risk of disease development. All of NC; NW SC; central and eastern TN; central and eastern KY; SE Indiana; All of Ohio; All of West Virginia; southwest Virginia; northern Virginia; All of Maryland; and southern PA.

Some disease development is also possible in the growing areas of southern Ontario. It seems likely that any airborne spores will already be washed out by the time they reach the Canadian growing areas. However, this is far from certain, and growers in southern Ontario should consider themselves at Moderate Risk of disease development. Deposition would occur sometime Tuesday.

An additional note on the forecasts...... The sources in western NC are greatly diminished. However, there are many counties with blue mold in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Rather than drop the Marshall source from the forecasts completely, I will include the trajectories from that site with the Jonesville, VA source. The two of them together should give a good picture of where the spores from this general region are going. TK

SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: ALL Except Conway, SC

ALL GROWING AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND THE OHIO VALLEY (with the exception of W KY and W TN), plus central and eastern NC, N VA, MD, and S PA

• Lizzie, North Carolina
• Conway, South Carolina
• Jeffress, Virginia
• Columbia, Tennessee
• Shelbyville, KY
• Jonesville, Virginia
• Lancaster, Pennsylvania