FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, June 25, 1997 - *** Conditions in the eastern U.S. are becoming more favorable for blue mold as the week progresses. *** Threats from the various source regions are low to moderate today, but the sources in the southern Appalachian Mountains and Ohio Valley will become Serious Threats by Thursday as an approaching front brings the promise of unsettled weather. Moderate Risk areas for today include E Kentucky, S West Virginia, SW Virginia, NE Tennessee, the northern and central mountains of NC, north-central KY, southeast IN, and southern Ohio.

For Thursday's release, the HIGH RISK areas are central Tennessee, central and eastern Kentucky, southern Indiana, southwest Ohio and the southern Appalachian Mountain region including NE TN, SW VA, S WV, and NW North Carolina. There is also Moderate Risk on Thursday for western KY, the northern piedmont of NC, south-central Virginia, southeast PA, NJ, DE, and eastern Maryland. The situation for this weekend doesn't look good at this point. Northern sections of the front will go through the mid-Atlantic states, but the southern end will slow down and get hung up over the Southeast and parts of the Ohio Valley.

Some new disease reports are in. Blue mold has been discovered in some new places as well as near regions that already have some disease present. These areas are south-central VA, southwest VA, northeast TN, and SE KY. TK

SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: None today; For Thursday's release: Columbia, TN, Shelbyville, KY, and Jonesville, VA

Central TN, Central & eastern KY, S IN, SW OH, and the S Appalachian Mountains (NE TN, SW VA, S WV, NW NC)

• Lizzie, North Carolina
• Conway, South Carolina
• Jeffress, Virginia
• Columbia, Tennessee
• Shelbyville, KY
• Marshall, North Carolina
• Jonesville, Virginia
• Lancaster, Pennsylvania

***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.

Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 25 June 1997.