FORECAST DISCUSSION: Sunday, June 1, 1997 - *** The four blue mold sources in NC and the Southeast remain SERIOUS threats. *** Conditions in the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and the Ohio Valley are quite favorable for disease development and will stay that way through Monday and likely longer. The low pressure area centered in KY/TN has nothing to move it and it will slowly drift around until something comes along to push it away. Nearly all of the tobacco production areas of the eastern U.S. will have variably to mostly cloudy skies and a chance of showers or thunderstorms early this week. Daily high temperatures will be in the 70's with some 60's north and some 80's in the south. The following areas are at HIGH RISK of disease development from spore releases Sunday and Monday: N Florida, S Georgia, S South Carolina, central and northern sections of the Piedmont and coastal plains of NC, and S & E Virginia. Growers elsewhere in the eastern U.S., from Pennsylvania southward down the spine of the Appalachians and through the deep South, should consider themselves at no less than Moderate Risk. The ONLY locations that seem to be at low risk early this week are the Canadian production areas and the burley growing areas of W TN and W KY. On Saturday and Sunday, afternoon and evening shower activity near the sources probably washed out most of the airborne spores, and the unexpectedly sunny conditions in E NC on Saturday probably caused some spore death. However, these aids to disease control will only slightly diminish an otherwise bad situation.

Turning to the S Texas region, the sources on the wild tobacco were low threats this weekend and will remain low threats early this week. Trajectories are away from any growing areas, and conditions are unfavorable for survivable transport and localized disease development. TK

SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: Lizzie, NC; Reno, GA; Live Oak, FL; Jesup, GA

N FL, S GA, S SC, central and northern sections of the Piedmont and coastal plains of NC, and S & E VA

• Lizzie, North Carolina
• Reno, Georgia
• Live Oak, Florida
• Jesup, GA
• Uvalde, Texas
• Corpus Christi, Texas

***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.

Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 1 June 1997.