FORECAST DISCUSSION: Wednesday, June 18, 1997 - *** We have several new reports of blue mold. *** Blue mold has been confirmed in the NC mountains in Buncombe County, in eastern NC in Edgecombe County, in south-central Virginia in Pittsylvania County, and in north-central Kentucky in Shelby County. The Shelby County report is the first from that area. Given its location and distance from other known disease sites, this source is being added to the forecasts.

There are Serious Threats today in the Ohio Valley, the southern Appalachian mountains, and southeast Pennsylvania, but there are NO Serious Threats or High Risk situations for Thursday. The unsettled weather in the eastern U.S. should move almost completely through the region today and tonight, and there will be at least a day or two of weather unfavorable for disease development. Temperatures will be very warm to hot, but skies will be mostly sunny and there will be little chance of rain.

HIGH RISK areas for Wednesday's spore release include north-central and northeast KY, southeast Indiana, southern Ohio, West Virginia, southeast Pennsylvania, and growing regions centered around northeast Tennessee (SE KY, NE TN, SW VA, extreme W NC). There is Strongly Moderate Risk for growers in western NC, Virginia, Maryland, northeast PA, and New York. In addition, growers in central and eastern TN, eastern NC, and on the DelMarVa peninsula are at Moderate Risk from today's release. Every source area except for NE SC is a Low Threat on Thursday. There is the possibility of disease development along the coast near the NC/SC border, but otherwise, everyone should be at Low Risk from Thursday's release. TK

SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: Shelbyville, KY; Southern Appalachian Mountains (Marshall, NC and Jonesville, VA); Lancaster, PA

North central and NE KY; SE IN; S OH; WV; SE PA; Growers in or near NE TN

• Lizzie, North Carolina
• Conway, South Carolina
• Jeffress, Virginia
• Columbia, Tennessee
• Shelbyville, Kentucky
• Marshall, North Carolina
• Jonesville, Virginia
• Lancaster, Pennsylvania

***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.

Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 18 June 1997.