FORECAST DISCUSSION: Monday, June 16, 1997 - *** Sunday's situation was much subdued, but threats from the various source areas will be increasing again this week. *** There were no serious threats for spore releases on Sunday, mostly due to unfavorable transport conditions near the source regions. However, as a cold front approaches from the Plains, conditions are turning favorable once again. The sources in the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachian Mountains are Serious Threats early this week, while the sources along the eastern seaboard are Low or Mild threats today, and Moderate Threats on Tuesday. Spores are travelling north or northeast from all the source areas. The mid-Atlantic states are getting spores from the Carolinas and Virginia, and spores from the southern mountains will be affecting West Virginia and Pennsylvania.

HIGH RISK areas for Monday and Tuesday are the Southern Appalachian Mountains and central sections of Tennessee and Kentucky. This includes S WV, SW VA, SE KY, NE TN, W NC, S-central KY, and central TN. There is Strongly Moderate Risk for growers in WV and PA, and growers near the coast, from the eastern Carolinas northward to New Jersey, are at Moderate Risk of disease development also.

Included in the forecasts today are separate Outlooks for the Horry County, SC source and the Mecklenburg County, VA source. Dropped from the rotation are the southern Texas source area and the S GA/N FL region. I will continue to monitor these areas for significant threats and report as necessary. Given the widespread nature of the epidemic, the remaining areas that are (seemingly) unaffected are more likely to be threatened by other sources that are closer to them. TK

SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: Columbia, TN; Marshall, NC; Jonesville, VA

S WV, SW VA, SE KY, NE TN, W NC, S-central KY, and central TN

• Lizzie, North Carolina
• Conway, South Carolina
• Columbia, Tennessee
• Marshall, North Carolina
• Jonesville, Virginia
• Jeffress, Virginia
• Lancaster, Pennsylvania

***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.

Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 16 June 1997.