FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, June 13, 1997 - *** The weather is still favorable.....and we have more new reports of blue mold. *** The first confirmed case of blue mold in Kentucky in 1997 was reported today, in Christian County. Active sporulation is occurring on about 5 acres of diseased plants. There is also bad news from Maryland. David Conrad from the University of Maryland has confirmed blue mold in plant beds and nearby fields in Anne Arundel County, and the suspicion remains that blue mold may be widely distributed in Maryland. An update from Horry County, SC informs us that actively sporulating blue mold is scattered across 5 acres of tobacco in that location. Blue mold has also been reported in Beaufort County, NC as well as other sites near Greene and Lenoir counties.

ALL of the known sources are SERIOUS Threats today, or Saturday, or both! Deposition of airborne spores is taking place today in the Ohio Valley and southeastern PA areas. On Saturday, deposition will occur in the Ohio Valley, southern Appalachian Mountains, southern Virginia and the Carolinas. The S GA/N FL region may also have some disease development. The HIGH RISK areas today and Saturday are: TN, KY, NC, S & SW VA, S WV, N GA, NW SC, NE MD, SE PA, and E NJ. There is also a Strongly Moderate Risk for growers in S GA, N FL, and E SC.

The eastern U.S. has had three solid weeks of weather that's favorable for disease development, and it's not over yet. Blue mold reports are coming in from all over the place. If you are growing tobacco anywhere south of the Great Lakes, it is highly likely that you have been exposed to this pathogen. Do Something - NOW !

Though you only see six sources listed below, rest assured that your Forecaster is aware of all the reports we have received. We are reevaluating our source sites as we get a better handle on all the new reports, and some new ones will be added next week. In particular, the reports from Horry County, SC, Mecklenburg County, VA, and Christian County, KY will get more attention. I didn't produce separate forecasts for these locations today, but trajectories were run and the threats from these sources have been included in the risk assessments given above. TK

SERIOUS SOURCE THREATS: ALL OF THEM

TN, KY, NC, S & SW VA, S WV, N GA, NW SC, NE MD, SE PA, E NJ

• Lizzie, North Carolina
• Pearson, Georgia
• Columbia, Tennessee
• Marshall, North Carolina
• Jonesville, Virginia
• Lancaster, Pennsylvania

***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****

This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.

Web page last updated by Thomas Keever on 13 June 1997.